Forecasting time series with neural networks
Hadis Heidaryan
2024
A time series is a set of data recorded over time. For example, we can refer to the time series of the price of a share in the stock market, the amount of rain in an area, etc. One of the most important goals of time series analysis is to predict its future values. Several statistical methods for predicting time series, such as the method of using time series analysis models of Autoregressive integrated moving average model and Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model, wavelet analysis methods have been in-troduced. Along with statistical methods, neural networks are also a powerful tool for predicting time series, due to the ability of neural networks to model relationships and complex patterns in data, predicting time series using it has attracted the attention of researchers in various fields and is a research topic. It has become popular. The use of convolutional neural networks to predict time series is known as an e?ective method for analyzing and predicting repetitive patterns in time data. These networks are designed to recognize di?erent patterns in temporal data and can make accurate predictions for future data values using these patterns. Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Recurrent Neural Networks and Gate Recurrent Neural Networks (GRU) are two types of neural networks used for time series forecasting. LSTM and GRU networks are useful for time series forecasting due to their ability to retain memory over time. These networks, using a memory unit, keep the previous information and make the next prediction according to this information. In this thesis, time series forecasting with convolutional neural network and LSTM and GRU neural networks is investigated. The performance of these networks in prediction accuracy is compared. Also, their performance is compared with statistical methods such as SARIMA.Key ords. Forecasting time series, Neural networks, Recurrent neural networks, Long short-term memory, Gated recurrent unit, Convolutional neural networks.